Already low, food inflation to slow in 2025, says USDA

For 2025, meat prices are forecast to rise at a below-normal rate of 2.9%, said the USDA.

Fresh produce on display at the Papaya Supermarket in Dearborn, Michigan
Photo:

USDA

Grocery prices will rise by a scant 0.7% in 2025, the smallest increase in seven years, said USDA analysts on Thursday in their first forecast of food inflation in the new year. Grocery price inflation was forecast at a below-normal 1% this year.

“Food prices are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024, compared to recent years,” said the monthly Food Price Outlook report. Grocery inflation crested at 11.4% in 2022, the highest rate in half a century, then fell to 5% in 2023. The long-term average is 2.7% a year.

Pork and poultry prices were moderating this year, the USDA report said, while prices for seafood, eggs, dairy, and fresh fruit and vegetables will be lower than in 2023.

For 2025, meat prices are forecast to rise at a below-normal rate of 2.9%, said the USDA. Prices for cereal and bakery products are expected to rise at a slower-than-usual rate. Fresh fruit and vegetable prices are expected to fall.

Consumers spend roughly 20¢ of each grocery dollar on meats, poultry, and fish, and nearly 13¢ of the grocery dollar on fresh fruits and vegetables.

Produced by FERN's Ag Insider
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