Wheat closes strong before weekend | July 19, 2024

The grain markets had a mixed close today. Wheat was strong, but corn and soybean markets were under pressure.

U.S. corn and soybean crops are off to a great start, with some private trade analysts indicating that we are on track to post record corn yields of 182 to 184 bushels per acre (bpa), and a soybean yield of 52 to 54 bpa.

Global production numbers are not as encouraging, with smaller wheat crops in Europe, Russia, and Ukraine. Russia and Ukraine reported temperatures of 100°F to 105°F each day this week. This is not only hurting wheat yields but also taking corn and sunflower yields lower. This will be reflected in the USDA global numbers to be released in August.

Today: Corn futures closed unchanged to 1¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 7¢ lower. Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 11¢ higher. 

The U.S. stock market was hit hard this week by increasing global concerns of an economic downturn. This also took stocks lower in China, where several negative economic reports were released this week. The growing political turmoil in the U.S. also weighed on stock prices. 

Outside Markets: The U.S. Dollar Index was up .17 points at 104.35. Crude oil was down $2.58 per barrel at $78.72. Gold closed down $57 per ounce. It is a red day in the commodity markets. 

Livestock markets today: August hogs closed up 20¢ at $91.57. August cattle closed up 85¢ at $183.10. November feeder cattle closed down $1.15 at $255.37.

10 a.m.: Grains on the rise early

Grain markets are all trading higher today, with wheat futures in Europe moving sharply higher.

The French and German wheat crop is smaller than expected, with lower-than-normal protein levels. The discounts when farmers are selling cash wheat are over $1.00 per bushel — so not much is being sold. The wheat crops in Ukraine and western Russia are being hit hard this week, with temperatures of over 105°F reported again today. 

The key to watch today is the wheat market and whether the September CBOT can close above $5.50. Worth noting also is that soybean futures made new lows this week and appear ready to post a Friday-to-Friday higher close. This would create a weekly hook reversal higher. 

At this hour, September and December corn futures are each up 4¢. Soybean futures are 4¢ to 9¢ higher, with August futures the strongest. Wheat futures are 15¢ to 20¢ higher. 

Global Stock Markets: The China stock market is down 2%, while stocks in Japan are down 0.2%. European stocks are down 0.7%.  

Outside Markets: The U.S. Dollar Index is up 12 points at 104.31. Crude oil is down 60¢ per barrel at $82.20. Gold is down $52 per ounce. And the U.S. stock market is down again today. The Dow is now 331 points lower today, and down over 1,000 points from last week's high. 

In the livestock markets today, August hogs are up 60¢, August cattle are up 77¢ and November feeder cattle are down $1.07.

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Editor’s Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance — whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies — is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. He is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications, including The Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farmboy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.