Less corn land is needed than soy to satisfy SAF goal

Soybean plantings would have to increase nearly 50% if soybean oil became the only feedstock for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), said two analysts from UC-Davis. With its higher yields per acre, corn ethanol as the sole feedstock would result in an increase in area of around 9%.

“A rapid expansion into SAFs could reignite the food vs. fuel debate and create similar changes in land use for conservation and crop production as the original RFS policies,” wrote professor Aaron Smith and doctoral student Andrew Swanson in an article for the American Enterprise Institute.

Farmers brought idle cropland into production as a result of the ethanol boom, and there were years of arguments over the environmental impact of land use change.

“Producing 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel would require the use of between 8 and 11 million acres of corn or 35 and 50 million acres of soybeans, depending on how rapidly crop yields increase over the next six years,” Smith and Swanson wrote. The Biden administration has a goal of SAF production of 3 billion gallons by 2030. Production now is 16 million gallons a year.

Corn and soybeans are the two most widely planted crops in the U.S., with nearly 179 million acres planted last year. There are a variety of ways to respond to demand for more corn or soybeans. One would be to devote less land to competing crops.