Soybeans close up 14¢ | Monday, June 24, 2024

July corn ended the day down 1½¢.

July soybeans are up 14¾¢.

July wheat closed mixed. CBOT wheat is down 9¢. KC wheat is up less than a penny. Minneapolis wheat is down 6¼¢.

“Much of today’s session focused around two main factors: weather and pre-report positioning,” says Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting. “First of all was the heavy weekend rains that impacted parts of the U.S. Midwest, mainly in northwest Iowa and surrounding areas. ... Unfortunately, trade sees floods as a localized issue, where drought tends to impact larger areas and cause greater production losses. The greatest impact from floods tends to be in the cash market as logistics can easily be disrupted. What weather support we did see today was to soybeans as that crop cannot withstand wet soils as well as corn can. A rally in meal and bull spread trading also gave the soy complex support over the grains today.

“Black Sea weather was also a market factor today. Rains have returned to the driest areas of Russia, and crop estimates are rising with them. The Ag Minister in Russia claims all frost-impacted fields have been reseeded and are now receiving rain. Total losses in Russia may be less than 1% of total wheat production. ... Trade is now focusing more on Chinese weather and the drought that is building there.

“Positioning started to increase today for Friday’s USDA reports, and also for month and quarter end. The outside markets offered commodities some support today, more so for the soy complex than the grains. A general lack of bullish news and low trader enthusiasm weighed on all contracts to start the week.”

On Friday the USDA is releasing the annual Acreage report and the quarterly Grain Stocks report.

August live cattle are up $1.68. August feeder cattle are up 53¢. July lean hogs are down $2.10.

August crude oil is currently up 95¢.

September S&P 500 futures are currently down 5 points. September Dow futures are up 267 points.

Published: 2:47 p.m. CT

Soybeans up 4¢: 10:10 a.m. CT

July corn is down 8¾¢ this morning.

July soybeans are up 4½¢.

All three July wheat contracts are down: CBOT wheat is down 11¾¢. KC wheat is down 6½¢. Minneapolis wheat is down 7¾¢.

Today at 3 p.m. CT, the weekly USDA Crop Progress report is expected to be released. Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says he expects corn and soybean condition ratings to fall two to three percentage points.

This morning the USDA announced the Philippines are buying 228,000 metric tons of soybean cake and meal for the 2024/2025 marketing year.

“Heavy rains are making the headlines as floodwaters make good news stories — both in China and in the United States,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX. “Chinese corn and soybean futures initially rose today, responding to flood reports in Heilongjiang Province, where nearly half of China’s soybeans are planted, along with considerable corn. ... The pictures are dramatic, and the local impact is significant, but reports thus far indicate that actual cropland impacted amounts to roughly 6,600 acres, which will have little impact on national production unless the problem continues to spread.

“Domestically, the focus is on heavy rains that fell, causing significant flooding in key production areas of southeast South Dakota, southern Minnesota, and northwestern Iowa. This region is expected to see a drier break in the near term, although rains are expected to return in week #2 of the forecast. The impact of the heavy rains in this region [is] significant, with crops underwater, along with many farms and residences along the rivers, raising concerns about production losses, leading to questions about the potential market impact.

“Rain makes grain, until it doesn’t. It didn’t in 1993. For those caught under the heavy rains in the northwest Midwest, I’m sure some are starting to wonder if we’re looking at a repeat of 1993? I pulled up the data looking at the four-week period starting May 26, which revealed that the climate reporting districts in the above-mentioned areas of the northwestern Midwest were among the top three wettest on record for the period going back through 132 years of data. Contrast that with 1993, when many of these same areas ranked in the top 10 wettest on record. So, from that standpoint, the past four weeks have been wetter than the same period in 1993.

“However, the real intense rains of 1993 were just getting started, with a very active rain pattern battering much of the northwestern and central Midwest from mid-June through mid-July, covering more than half of the Midwest in the core of the Corn Belt at a time when the corn crop was trying to go through pollination. Contrast that with Commodity Weather Group’s estimates that this year’s flooding is impacting crops over roughly 10% of the Midwest. Furthermore, while the forecast remains favorable for rains over much of this region going forward, the pattern itself is expected to change, leading to less intensity of rainfall than we’ve seen recently. ... But thus far I do not see the type of production threat that we experienced in 1993.”

 August live cattle are up $1.28. August feeder cattle are up 83¢. July lean hogs are down 73¢.

August crude oil is up 36¢.

The U.S. Dollar Index September contract is down to 105.18.

September S&P 500 futures are up 5 points. September Dow futures are up 370 points.

Published: 10:10 a.m. CT