U.S. switches method to estimate China's soy imports after data gap

By Tom Polansek

CHICAGO, March 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Agriculture has started using global exporters' data to estimate China's soybean imports because a wide gap emerged between shipping figures from producing nations and Chinese customs data, a USDA official told Reuters.

The change in methodology comes at a sensitive time for U.S.-China relations and as China is trying to improve its food security plans to rely less on imports.

China is the world's biggest soybean importer and tracking its demand is important for world commodity prices.

Chinese customs data that USDA historically used to estimate imports had previously aligned with export data from producers like the U.S. and Brazil, said Joanna Hitchner, who oversees soybean supply and demand estimates for USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board. But the numbers began deviating in 2023, and the USDA this month increased its estimate for China's 2022-2023 imports by 3.6% from February to reflect exporters' data, she said.

"We prefer to use China customs data but will continue to monitor this gap in trade to see whether we can go back to using their reported import data," Hitchner said in an interview this week.

Market analysts have long questioned Chinese data. Some said Beijing may have sought to under-report soybean imports to boost its food security campaign.

Hitchner said she did not know why Chinese import data and exporters' data diverged.

China's General Administration of Customs could not be reached for comment.

Last week, it revised soybean import volumes for January-February 2023 to 14.3 million tons, versus an initial published figure of 16.17 million tons. China is known to revise retrospective import figures, but such a big downward adjustment is unusual.

Shipping data from soy exporters and China's import data "particularly deviated even more when they started making downward revisions to their import numbers," Hitchner said.

The USDA this month also increased its estimates for China's soybean crush from 2020-2021 to 2022-2023, following a years-long review of in-country estimates and supply data.

"We don't take changing our methodology lightly," Hitchner said. "This is a very thought-out move for the crush."

(Reporting by Tom Polansek; Additional reporting by Mei Mei Chu in Beijing; Editing by Paul Simao)