Markets Markets Analysis Wheat closes up 38¢ | Monday, May 20, 2024 Analyst says Black Sea weather was the primary driver of today’s rally. By Cassidy Walter Cassidy Walter Cassidy Walter joined Successful Farming in 2022 to cover commodity markets and agribusiness. Previously, she spent more than five years as the Communications Director for the Iowa Renewable Fuels Association, where her work supported Iowa biofuels producers and farmers. Successful Farming's Editorial Guidelines Updated on May 20, 2024 Close Photo: Huizen Hu July corn ended the day up 8¢. July soybeans are up 20¢. CBOT wheat is up 37½¢. KC wheat is up 35¢. Minneapolis wheat is up 27¾¢. “Futures rallied today with the wheat complex leading the way,” says Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting. “Black Sea weather was the primary cause of this, as crop damage is being reported in both Russia and Ukraine from recent weather. Frost damage is being seen in Ukraine wheat, while frost and drought are cutting the Russian crop. “We have seen mixed reports on yield losses in Russia, but the fact that Russian export offers on wheat jumped $18.00 a metric ton last week tells us losses may be greater than reported. Hopes are this will bring the U.S. more wheat demand, especially with our production forecast to rise on the year.” Live cattle are up 43¢. Feeder cattle are down $1.38. Lean hogs are up 43¢. Crude oil is down 34¢. S&P 500 futures are up 5 points. Dow futures are down 173 points. Published: 2:18 p.m. CT Wheat surges 32¢: 9:58 a.m. CT July corn is up 7½¢. July soybeans are up 21¢. CBOT wheat is up 32¢. KC wheat is up 31¾¢. Minneapolis wheat is up 24¾¢. “Wheat prices surged in Europe earlier today, leading to strong double-digit gains here in the States as well,” says Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX. “Russian weather is the focus, but concerns are growing beyond Russia now as well. Private production estimates from the Black Sea region are now starting to come in below 85 million metric tons. We’ve talked extensively about freeze damage in Russia, with Ukraine also talking about some damage, but the real threat to the Black Sea crop is related to the current drought pattern in southern Russia and in eastern Ukraine. “... Widespread rains are expected to return to the Midwest early this week, after providing a window of opportunity for planting progress – primarily in northwestern areas – in recent days. Planting progress remains well ahead of the benchmark 2019 growing season when corn and soybeans didn’t complete planting well into June, but delays are still significant enough to raise concerns.” Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors, says in today's USDA Crop Progress report “The trade is expecting corn planting to be at 60 to 65%. Any number that is less than 65% I will view as positive for corn prices. We are in the ideal time period for the 12-week bottom-to-bottom price cycle to put in a low. Watch for the first day that prices close above the two previous days’ high to confirm that low.” Live cattle are up 20¢. Feeder cattle are down 78¢. Lean hogs are up 10¢. Crude oil is up 12¢. The U.S. Dollar Index June contract is up to 104.42. S&P 500 futures are up 19 points. Dow futures are up 47 points. Published: 9:58 a.m. CT Was this page helpful? Thanks for your feedback! Tell us why! Other Submit