3 Big Things Today, July 18, 2024

1. Soybean futures lower in overnight trading

Soybean futures were lower in overnight trading amid more favorable weather conditions in the U.S. and on rising global supplies. 

A heat wave that baked parts of the U.S. Corn Belt has moved on and cooler weather that will cause less stress to plants is expected in the next few days. 

Precipitation is expected in much of the central and western Corn Belt in the next three days, according to maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. As much as 1.5 inches is expected in parts of east-central Nebraska and counties in western Iowa. 

Global soybean inventories in the 2024/2025 marketing year that starts on Sept. 1 are forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture to rise to 127.8 million metric tons. 

That would be up from an estimate for 111.3 million tons at the end of the current marketing year, USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report last week. 

Still, underpinning soybean and grain prices is extremely hot weather in the Black Sea region and growing areas of Canada. 

Temperatures will reach triple digits this week in Black Sea growing areas and in southeastern Europe, Commodity Weather Group said in a note to clients. 

Heat in parts of Saskatchewan and Alberta is expected to stress wheat and canola growing in the Canadian provinces, CWG said. 

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 6¼¢ to $10.34¾ a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal dropped $2.50 to $309.60 a short ton and soy oil was up 0.24¢ to 44.23¢ a pound. 

Corn futures for December delivery lost 2¢ to $4.08¾ a bushel.

Wheat futures for September delivery rose ½¢ to $5.39¾ a bushel, while Kansas City futures fell ¼¢ to $5.60 3/4 a bushel. 

2. Ethanol production jumps to six-month high

Ethanol output rose to the highest level in more than six months while inventories plunged, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Production rose to 1.106 million barrels a day, on average, on the week that ended on July 12, the agency said in a report. 

That’s up from 1.054 million barrels per day the previous week and the highest level since Dec. 22, EIA said. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output came in at an average of 1.046 million barrels a day, up from 1.001 million the previous week. 

Gulf Coast production was reported at 28,000 barrels per day, up from 21,000 barrels the week prior, the government said. 

East Coast output was again steady at 12,000 barrels a day, on average, and Rocky Mountain and West Coast production were both unchanged at 10,000 barrels. 

Ethanol inventories in the seven days that ended on July 12 totaled 23.16 million barrels, EIA said. That’s down from 23.603 million barrels seven days earlier and the lowest level in six weeks.

3. Flood warnings in effect along Mississippi River

Flood warnings remain in effect in several counties along the Illinois-Missouri border along waterways in central Illinois, according to the National Weather Service. 

The Mississippi River near Grafton, Illinois, just north of St. Louis, was at about 23 feet late last night and is expected to reach 23.1 feet this afternoon, the agency said. Flood stage in the area is at 20 feet. 

Near Hannibal, Missouri, the river late Wednesday was at 21.5 feet, topping flood stage of 17 feet, NWS said.

Thunderstorms are possible in parts of central Nebraska and north-central Kansas, the agency said. Severe weather is unlikely. 

More storms are expected Friday evening into Saturday in the area, with some potentially severe late Friday night. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall are the biggest threats associated with the storms, NWS said.