3 Big Things Today, July 25, 2024

1. Wheat futures decline in overnight trading

Wheat futures were lower in overnight trading as the U.S. harvest continues and Russia’s production outlook improved.

Corn and soybeans were little changed. 

Seventy-six percent of the U.S. winter wheat crop was harvested at the start of this week, up from 71% seven days earlier and above the five-year average 72%, according to the USDA. 

Earlier this month the agency raised its forecast for global stockpiles at the end of the 2024/2025 marketing year (ending May 31) to 257.2 million metric tons from 252.3 million tons.

The agency also raised its outlook for U.S. inventories to 23.3 million metric tons from 20.6 million a month earlier. 

Russian grain output, which had been threatened by dry weather and frost throughout the growing season, may be better than previously expected. Production is now forecast at 130.5 million metric tons, up from 127.4 million tons, consultant SovEcon said. The consultant raised its forecast for wheat production to 84.2 million tons. 

Wheat futures for September delivery fell 3¢ to $5.44 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), while Kansas City futures lost 4¾¢ to $5.62¾ a bushel. 

Corn futures for December delivery rose ¾¢ to $4.18¾ a bushel.

Soybean futures for November delivery fell 2¢ to $10.61 a bushel. Soy meal lost 50¢ to $320.10 a short ton. Soy oil was down 0.16¢ to 43.94¢ a pound. 

2. Ethanol production falls in week through July 19

Ethanol output declined in the seven days ending on July 19, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Production of the biofuel fell to an average 1.095 million barrels a day, the agency said. That’s down from an average 1.106 million barrels the previous week. 

In the Midwest, by far the biggest producing region, output dropped to 1.035 million barrels, on average, from 1.046 million the week prior. Gulf Coast production fell to 26,000 barrels a day from 28,000, and West Coast output declined to 9,000 barrels from 10,000 the previous week, EIA said. 

East Coast output was steady at 12,000 barrels a day, on average, and Rocky Mountain production rose to 12,000 barrels from 10,000 barrels a week earlier. 

Ethanol stockpiles through July 19, meanwhile, jumped to 23.723 million barrels, EIA said. That’s the highest level since May 17, and up from 23.16 million a week earlier. 

3. Hot, dry weather expected in northern Plains

Excessive heat warnings, red flag warnings and heat advisories have been issued for parts of Montana and western North Dakota and South Dakota, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).

Heat indexes are forecast to 108°F in parts of central and eastern Montana, and from 98°F to 102°F in western South Dakota, NWS reported early this morning. Low humidity is forecast to accompany the heat, creating tinderbox-like conditions. 

In western South Dakota, critical fire weather conditions are expected from midday into the evening, the agency said. 

The NWS predicted relative humidity to fall as low as 8% this afternoon and winds to average 10 to 25 mph and gust up to 35 mph.

Elevated fire conditions are forecast for tomorrow in western South Dakota, the agency said.