Beans, corn down while wheat closes on an uptick | September 12, 2023

The bombshell today was finding 800,000 more corn acres. This increase, even with a smaller yield, kept ending stocks much larger than expected. The soybean production numbers came in close to my expectation, but USDA cut both exports and crush for next year. I do not agree with that forecast but the bottom line is that both corn and soybeans closed lower today.

At the close today, December corn was down 9¢, November soybeans closed 22¢ lower, and wheat futures managed to close 3¢ to 7¢ higher. 

Sometimes you need a negative report to put a bottom in — let's see what happens tomorrow. Certainly, downside risk is limited. We are very close to long term support on both corn and soybeans. I will be watching for more corn and soybean sales to be announced this week. 

In the outside markets today. The stock market is higher with Dow up 58 points at this hour. The U.S. dollar is down 18 points today, while crude oil continues higher and is up another $1.60 per barrel at $88.90.

In the livestock markets on Tuesday. October hogs closed up $2.72 at  $85.27, October cattle closed down 17¢ at $184.15, and November feeders closed up 15¢ at $262.90.

Beans, corn down while wheat is mixed: 12 p.m.

The USDA reports showed yields very close to trade estimates with the corn yield coming in at 173.8 bushels per acre. However, planted and harvested acres increased by 800,000 acres. The total crop estimate is at 15.134 billion bushels.

For soybeans the yield came in right at the trade estimate at 50.1 bushels per acre and total production came in at 4.146 billion bushels, down 49 million bushels from last month. 

The corn and soybean markets are all lower. Corn is down 10¢, and soybeans are down 19¢. Wheat is mixed, with Chicago lower and KC and Minneapolis wheat higher. 

In the outside markets, the U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.12 points at 104.70, crude oil started lower and is now up $1.81 per barrel at $89.10, making new highs for 2023. The Dow is now up 99 points. 

Livestock futures are mixed today. November feeder cattle made new contract highs and are now down 10 cents. October live cattle are down 12¢, and October lean hogs are up $1.85.

Beans, grains down in morning trading: 9:15 a.m.

The grain markets are all lower in quiet low volume trade ahead of the USDA reports that will be released at 11 a.m. CT. 

Here are the trade guesses for the USDA Crop Production report:

Corn yield: 173.4 bushels per acre. Total production 14.986 billion bushels.

Soybean yield: 50.1 bushels per acre. Total production 4.152 billion bushels.

At this time corn is down 2¢ per bushel, soybeans are down 13¢, and wheat futures are 4¢ to 6¢ lower. 

Around the world in the stock markets: The stock market in China is down 0.3% and in Japan the stock market is up 0.6%. European stocks are down 0.3%. 

In the outside markets, the US Dollar Index is up 0.25 points at 104.80. Crude oil started lower and is now up $1.80 per barrel at $89.17 – making new highs for 2023. The Dow is down 55 points. 

Livestock futures are higher again today. November feeder cattle making new contract highs and are now up 55¢. October live cattle are up 20¢, and October lean hogs are up $1. 

For a free trial of The Kluis Report, including three times a day market updates and the Saturday newsletter, visit kluiscommodities.com, call 888-345-2855, or email info@kluiscommodityadvisors.com.

Editor's Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.