Soybeans end 14¢ to 16¢ higher | March 12, 2024

The grain markets were mostly higher today with soybeans posting impressive gains. The news that Conab made large reductions in the projected corn and soybean crops in Brazil was the feature today. Corn continues to grind higher, and wheat appears to have bottomed.    

At the close, corn futures were unchanged today on the close, soybean futures were 14¢ to 16¢ higher, and wheat closed 2¢ lower to 2¢ higher in the Minneapolis wheat contract. 

My current chart analysis shows that with May corn closing over $4.40 the next resistance level now is at $4.50, for May CBOT soybeans the close above $11.90 opens the door for a test of $12.08. The rally so far has been very orderly with the CBOT absorbing a lot of selling from both the U.S. farmers and farmers in South America. 

In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is slightly higher, and the U.S. stock market is up challenging with the major indexes again right at the all-time highs. At this hour, energy prices are slightly lower. 

In the livestock markets, prices were all higher. April hogs closed $2.07 higher at $85.35, April cattle closed up 65¢ at $188.25, and May feeder cattle closed up $1.32 at $256.70.

9:30 a.m.: Cattle prices up in morning trading

The news this morning is that Conab (like USDA in Brazil) came out with updated production estimates. They now estimate the Brazilian soybean crop at 146.8 million metric tons (mmt) down 2.6 mmt from last month and a whopping 8.2 mmt below USDA. For corn, the updated Conab  estimate is at 112.7 mmt — down 1 mmt from last month and 13.3 mmt below the USDA estimate. I thought this would be more positive for grain prices, but it is early in the day. 

At this hour, corn futures are down 1¢, soybean futures are 1¢ lower, and wheat futures are 1¢ to 3¢ lower. 

Global stock markets: The stock market in China is up 0.1% while stocks in Japan are down 0.4%. European stocks are up 0.3%  The US stock market is mixed with the S&P 500 up 6 points and the Dow down 19. 

Outside markets: The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.27 points at 103.13, crude oil is down 2¢ per barrel at $77.95. Gold is down $16.

In the livestock markets April hogs are up 40¢, April cattle are up 17¢, and May feeder cattle are up 50¢.

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About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.