Corn up at closing | Monday, September 11, 2023

The grain markets were choppy with corn able to close higher after trading lower most of the day, soybeans closed higher on strong meal prices while the wheat market at new contract lows.

Tomorrow is the big USDA Reports. We will have trade estimates in the early morning comments, and the numbers along with my initial thoughts of the numbers by 11:50, along with the closing market comments by 3:30 p.m.

At the close corn closed 2¢ higher, soybeans are up 6¢ and wheat futures were 4 to 11¢ lower.

The trade expects and was expecting a 1-3% decline in the USDA Crop conditions today and the report showed corn and soybean ratings down each by 1% to 52% good to excellent.

In the outside markets today, the stock market is higher with Dow up 81 points, The US dollar is down 55 points today, Crude oil has trade higher and lower and right now is down 25¢ a barrel.

In the livestock markets on Tuesday. October Hogs closed up $1.02 at $82.55, October Cattle closed up $1.00 at $184.22 and November Feeders closed up $2.12 at $262.75. This was a new life of contract high close.

Published: 3:30 p.m. CDT

Wheat goes into the red at midday: 10:50 CDT

The wheat market has turned lower posting new life of contract lows which is putting pressure on the corn market. Soybean prices are still higher but well off the early highs. I think the reports tomorrow can be positive for corn and especially soybean prices but until the wheat market can stabilize and turn higher corn prices will struggle.

At this time corn is down 1¢, soybeans are up 6¢ and wheat futures are 6 to 12¢ lower.

As I mentioned this morning that the September corn, and wheat contracts are trading at a large discount to the December contracts. The continuation gaps will be important to watch after the close on Thursday. This large September to December gap may create a spike low on the long term charts.

The trade expects and is building in a 1-3% decline in the USDA Crop conditions for corn and soybeans this afternoon. That is built in so will not be bullish unless conditions drop more than that. However, if conditions fall below 50% good to excellent for corn and soybeans – then I think the trade will notice.

In the outside markets, the stock market is still higher with Dow up 31 points, The US dollar is down 55 points today, Crude oil has trade higher and lower and right now is down 30 cents a barrel.

Livestock futures are now higher. November feeder cattle are up $1.57. October live cattle are up 75¢, October lean hogs are 70¢ higher.

Published: 10:50 a.m. CDT

Corn opens in the green: 9:50 a.m.CDT

The corn and soybean markets are mostly higher in quiet trade with wheat futures lower. The weather was very close to the forecasts from last Friday with cool dry conditions over the weekend and mostly dry conditions with seasonal temps this week. Harvest is beginning in many areas this week and will accelerate next week.

At this time corn is up 1¢ per bushel, soybeans are up 6¢ and wheat futures are 6 to 10¢ lower.

I have noticed these two things to watch on my charts. First is the large September to December continuation gaps on the CBOT corn and wheat charts – will those gaps be filled next week or will the weekly chart show a spike low. Second is that this is week five of sideways market for December corn futures will the chart building a coil as it puts in lower highs and higher lows.

Early corn harvest results continue to show a lot of tip back, and small kernels.

Around the world in the stock markets: The stock market in China is up 0.7% and in Japan the stock market is down 0.3%. European stocks are up 0.4%

In the outside markets, the U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.46 points at 104.62, crude oil started lower and is now up 32¢ per barrel at $87.83, S&P futures are up 16 points at 4,477 Dow futures are up 112 points at 34,720.

Livestock futures are also higher today. November feeder cattle have turned higher – last trade futures are up 27¢, October live cattle are up 30¢, October lean hogs are up $1.30.

Published: 9:20 a.m. CDT

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Editor's Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.