Deere combine offerings rebound

An online dealership auction at the end of June offers strong evidence that the shortage of late-model combines is relenting. During that auction, four John Deere S780 harvesters sold, with final bids ranging from $355,100 to $418,000 for combines with dual- and rear-wheel drives. That wouldn’t be so unusual, except these were all 2022 models and likely recent trade-ins.

Typically such combines — 1-year-old, low-hour, and one of Deere’s most popular models — would be placed in the dealer’s lot to entice buyers. However, used combine inventories must have been increasing enough for this dealer to cut trade-in numbers by selling these premium combines at auction.

Further evidence of inventory reduction moves can be found in the 15 S780s from model year 2021 sold at auction early in the summer. This is a strong indicator that shortages of late-model used equipment in general, and combines in particular, are slacking off as the industry ramps up production. The number of combines coming out of factories climbed 16% in 2022 over 2021. Since the first of this year, combine output has nearly doubled compared to 2021.

A further indication of used-combine resupply can be found on Deere’s dealership site, machinefinder.com. A search showed 890 year-old combines sitting on dealer’s lots at press time.

We haven’t seen numbers like that since 2013.

2022 Combine Availability

Leading this green inventory run-up are Model S780s. The inventory of 2022 S780s stands at 425. Here is a rundown of all model year 2022 green combines sitting on dealer’s lots:

• S760 (27 available)
• Asking price range: $429,900 to $525,899
• Separator hours range: 83 to 300 hours
• S770 (187 available)
• Asking price range: $394,000 to $625,000
• Separator hour range: 41 to 664 hours
• S780 (425 available)
• Asking price range: $448,000 to $704,880
• Separator hour range: 32 to 650 hours
• S790 (141 available)
• Asking price range: $529,500 to $713,000
• Separator hour range: 20 to 425 hours
• X9 1000 (51 available)
• Asking price range: $669,900 to $829,509
• Separator hour range: 59 to 451 hours
• X9 1100 (59 available)
• Asking price range: $685,000 to $918,344
• Separator hour range: 40 to 893 hours

These are just 2022 harvesters. I drilled down into the sale data found on several used-equipment websites to track the availability of all green models and found the following:

• 2021 – 617 total combines available
• 2020 – 335 available
• 2019 – 299 available
• 2018 – 336 available
• 2017 – 202 available

The decline in availability witnessed for this five-year span can be attributed to the effects of depressed grain prices followed by recent, severe shortages of labor and manufacturing components.

Bargains Begin Returning to Combines

The recent boost in inventories is certain to put dealers in a bargaining mood on combines as harvest approaches. Mitch Helman of Sandhills Global, which produces the Sandhills Equipment Value Index (sandhills.com), reports the “largest auction value decreases in the higher-class combine category” in recent years.

Thus, if you have held off on upgrading your harvest capacity or are looking to add a second or third combine to the fleet now would be a great time to price machines. Some of the largest machinery auctions of the year are also held between now and mid-September.

Much of your shopping can be done online by accessing manufacturers’ used-equipment websites. The “Auction Results” sections of auctiontime.com and tractorzoom.com provide a read of what combines prices are doing in real time.

Deep Dive Into S780s

To assist you with pricing potential buys, this Price Guide compares dealer asking prices for 2022 Model S780s, comparing the values for combines equipped with tracks and rear-wheel drive, rear-wheel drive and duals, and two-wheel drive and duals. All the combines in the table were equipped with a chopper, ActiveYield, Advisor package, and Contour-Master.

The source of the dealer numbers, machinefinder.com, offers an invaluable feature that can filter listings not only by model and year, but also by major features (axle type, tire configuration, options, etc.).

For auction price trends and availability, you can go to tractorzoom.com.

Huge Growth in Combine Sales in Asia Pacific

The fastest-growing market for combines in the future is neither North America nor Europe.

Astute Analytica, a marketing research firm based in India, projects that combine manufacturing will climb to 259,000 units by 2030, up from the current output of about 161,000.

More significantly, by 2030, 50% of all combines will be sold in the Asia Pacific region, up from its current level of 35%.