Soybean prices rally at the close | May 2, 2024

Grain prices posted a strong rally today as new multi-week highs were hit. July corn posted a test of the 100-day moving average. The last time we tested this moving average was Oct. 20, while the last time we closed above the 100-day was July 27, 2023. Soybean prices came alive today as the July contract tested the $12 mark. A strong close tomorrow could open the door for a test of the 100-day moving average near $12.23. July corn settled the day up 10¢ while July soybeans were up 29¢. 

Wheat futures closed the day in the green after trading both sides of even throughout the day. Traders are watching the July Spring wheat contract as prices are close to breaking out higher. CBOT wheat was up 3¢, KC wheat was up 11¢ while Spring wheat was up 7¢. 

Livestock futures were mixed at the close. Feeder cattle were up $2.50 to $3.30, while Live cattle were up $2.25 to $2.65. Lean hogs were down 45¢ to 90¢.

The outside markets were mixed today as well. The U.S. dollar was down 0.31, crude was down 18¢, while the S&P futures were up 38 points late in the day.

Published at 3:30 p.m. CT

Grain prices start the day high: 10:10 a.m. CT

Grain prices are higher this morning as technical strength and friendly headlines aid the bull camp. July corn has pushed to the highest levels since the March 28 Planting Intention report day. Wetter forecasts for the Midwest are also fueling the rally as traders are growing more concerned about the pace at which the U.S. crop will get planted. It’s worth noting that traders like to see 50% of the corn crop planted by May 10. If we get to that point and are still behind pace, the funds that are still short corn may reconsider that position. 

July soybeans have pushed to the highest level since April 10 this morning. The next overhead target for the soybean bulls is the April 8 high at $11.93. A strong close above this line could propel prices toward the March 21 high at $12.27. Wheat futures are in the green this morning after a mixed day on Wednesday. CBOT wheat is quietly higher after trading 16¢ higher at one point. KC wheat is trying to recoup some of the losses from earlier in the week while spring wheat is dangerously close to breaking out to highs seen in early February.

Livestock futures are higher on the news that no traces of H5N1 were found in ground beef samples. Feeder cattle are up $2.75 to $3.35 while Live cattle are up $2.05 to $2.75. Lean hogs are 55¢ to 90¢ lower in the nearby months while December hogs are up 45¢. 

The U.S. dollar index is up 0.10 at 105.64 this morning. Traders will be watching the 20-day moving average closely as the bears have tested this line of support four out of the last five trading days. Crude oil continues to slide lower as global tensions appear to be easing. Look for support in crude oil near $78.41.

Published at 10:10 a.m. CT

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Editor's Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

About the Author: Bob Linneman is a commodities broker with Kluis Commodity Advisors. Linneman grew up on a diverse farm in eastern South Dakota. Between milking cows, managing a beef herd, and farming various crops, he experienced many aspects of agriculture firsthand. After graduating from North Dakota State University with a degree in business, he moved to Hawaii with his wife. There he was an associate portfolio manager for a fixed income firm that managed $2 billion in assets. After nearly two years in Hawaii, he moved back to the Midwest and began his career in commodities. Linneman is licensed as a Series 3 and Series 30 commodity broker.