Grains slip lower at close, livestock hit hard | Friday, November 24, 2023

Grain prices slipped lower throughout trading on Friday as markets wrapped up early due to the holiday. At the close, corn was down 5¢, soybeans were down 26¢ and wheat was down 7 to 13¢.

The technical picture for the grain charts going into the weekend favors the bear camp as many futures contracts closed at or below major moving averages or at new contract lows (KC and Spring wheat). Watch the headlines over the weekend for any major changes to South American weather. Also, some traders are becoming more concerned about the potential for a recession. This could lead to money flowing out of the commodity sector as investors seek safe investments as we head into the final trading month of 2023.

The livestock market was hit hard today. Trader commentary suggests that money flow was primary reason for sell off. The recent news that China stated their hog herd is too large sent prices lower earlier this week, and that bearish momentum continues. Livestock traders have also mentioned the concern over possible recession unfolding. January Feeder Cattle were down $7.80 while December Live Cattle were down $4.22 at the close. Lean Hog futures were also lower as December settled down 70¢ and February settled down $3.05. 

The US dollar index closed down 0.55 points at 103.28. The weakness seen today is likely tied to preliminary data showing weak retail sales. Any sign that the high interest rates enacted by the Federal Reserve are slowing the economy is being taken as proof the plan is working. However, this is also strengthening some economists and analysts thoughts that a recession is about to unfold. 

Crude oil futures fell $1.20 in the early afternoon as prices are trading just below the $76 mark. The stock market futures are quietly higher.

Published: 1:21 p.m. CST

Grain futures open weaker: 9:09 a.m. CST

Grain futures opened weaker at the start of trading today. Soybeans are seeing the most selling pressure as January soybeans were down 11¢ shortly after the open but have bounced back to only down 4¢. Futures tested support at the 100-day moving average. December corn is now steady after being down 2¢ while the wheat complex remains down 4 to 6¢. Grain traders will be watching the weather updates for South America as we head into the weekend. Note that grain trading concludes today at 12:05 p.m. CST. 

The USDA did report two export sales this morning: 129,000 metric tons sold to China and 323,400 metric tons of soybeans sold to unknown. The weekly export sales report was released this morning, one day late due to the holiday. Wheat sales were pegged at 171,800 metric tons (low end of expectations), corn sales were reported at 1,432,400 metric tons (top end of expectations), and soybean sales were 961,300 metric tons (low end of expectations). It would appear as traders were disappointed with the export data and started the day off with selling pressure.

Livestock futures are lower this morning. January feeder cattle are down $1.95 while December live cattle are down $1.35. December lean hogs are down 25¢ while February lean hogs are down $1.10. The livestock sector has struggled in recent weeks as the fears of a global recession loom. 

The U.S. dollar index is down 0.41 points this morning, which is below the key 100-day moving average. Major support for the dollar should be found near the 103 mark. Crude oil futures are down 65¢ this morning at $76.45. The S&P 500 futures are down 3 points while the Dow Jones futures are up 51 points. 

Published: 9:09 a.m. CST