Grains remain mixed at closing | September 28, 2023

Grain prices closed out trading on Thursday mixed. December corn was able to hold on to the nickel gains and settle within 2¢ of the high for the month. December corn was also able to post a second close above the 20-day moving average. If the Quarterly Stocks report tomorrow is neutral to friendly, prices are likely to test the 50-day average near $4.95. 

November soybeans finished the day quietly lower but managed to stay above the $13 mark. The 100-day moving average is proving to be a strong level of resistance. KC and spring wheat futures fell to new lows today, while the CBOT contracts remained just above major support. The dryness in Ukraine is not gaining any bullish momentum at this point as traders know wheat is a hearty plant. 

Once we get through the Quarterly Grain Stocks report tomorrow morning at 11:00am, traders will shift focus back to U.S. harvest progress and yield reports. The next big USDA report will be the October Supply & Demand combined with the WASDE (which covers world supplies). 

Livestock futures held much of the gains into the close on Thursday. November feeder cattle were up $2.65, October live cattle were up $2.77 and October lean hogs were up $1.82. A strong move tomorrow could trigger further momentum buying as we wrap up trading for the month and the quarter. 

Crude oil futures were hit with further selling pressure on Thursday afternoon. Crude was down nearly $2 on the day after the bulls failed to hold the early session strength. The US dollar remained under pressure through the close. Futures were down 41¢ at 105.95 in the afternoon trading. Although Thursday was controlled by the bears, the chart still favors the bull camp for now. 

12 p.m.: Grains remain mixed at midday

Corn futures remain mixed at midday on Thursday. December corn is up 4¢, near the highs of the day. Soybeans and wheat futures are quietly lower as we approach the noon hour. Worth noting that this morning, December corn came within 2¢ of the high for the month of September. This could possibly trigger some profit taking ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks tomorrow.

Livestock futures are near the highs at midday. November feeder cattle are up $2.50, while October live cattle are up $1.80. October lean hogs are up $1.60 while December lean hogs are up $3.00 on the day. 

Selling pressure has increased in the U.S. dollar as futures have slipped below the low from yesterday. 105.56 is the prior two day low, which will be the first level of support for the bulls. Crude oil futures are roughly $2.50 off of the overnight high. However, futures are still trading near the middle of yesterday's range. We should not be surprised to see some profit taking in crude oil as futures push to multi-month highs.

9 a.m. update: Grains mixed in morning trading

Grain futures are mixed this morning after a quiet overnight session. December corn is up 2¢, while all three classes of wheat are quietly lower. November soybeans have already etched another 20¢ trading range and are down 10¢. 

Grain traders are making final changes to their positions ahead of the Quarterly Grain Stocks report out tomorrow morning at 11:00am. 

Livestock futures are mixed after the opening bell. Feeder Cattle are quietly lower, while live cattle and lean hogs are quietly higher.

In the outside markets, the U.S. dollar is lower this morning, trading near the 106 mark. Crude oil futures are giving back some of yesterday's big gains, with prices currently down $1.10. US stock market futures are quietly higher this morning. The recent slide in the stock market has put futures at the lowest level since May. 

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Editor's Note: The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance – whether actual or indicated by simulated historical tests of strategies – is not indicative of future results. Trading advice reflects good-faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee the advice given will result in profitable trades.

About the Author: Bob Linneman is a commodities broker with Kluis Commodity Advisors. Linneman grew up on a diverse farm in eastern South Dakota. Between milking cows, managing a beef herd, and farming various crops, he experienced many aspects of agriculture firsthand. After graduating from North Dakota State University with a degree in business, he moved to Hawaii with his wife. There he was an associate portfolio manager for a fixed income firm that managed $2 billion in assets. After nearly two years in Hawaii, he moved back to the Midwest and began his career in commodities. Linneman is licensed as a Series 3 and Series 30 commodity broker.