Semi Truck values soften as new inventory increases

Class 8 values soften significantly, offering summer buying opportunities.

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Published on May 11, 2023

A year ago prices for late-model — heck, all models of used — semi trucks were stratospheric. The same supply chain disruption that was impacting farm machinery manufacturers was plaguing truck makers, cutting off the supply of new trucks. Buyers who couldn't get new trucks went after late-model vehicles. As a result, the average price for a Class 8 sleeper truck reached an astonishing $90,393 in December 2021, according to J.D. Power.

That was $41,748 more than 2020, despite trucks being 6 months older.

This winter a reversal came with a vengeance! Class 8 semi prices dropped 25%, according to ACT Research. "That was a bit steeper than expected," observes Steve Tam of ACT Research.

The J.D. Power's Commercial Truck Guidelines reports buyers are still snatching up low-hour premium trucks. But when it comes to 2- to 6-year-old sleeper trucks in J.D. Power's benchmark model, average pricing in late winter was as follows:

2022 models: $162,668 (a 5% climb in price compared to January).
2021 models: $121,816 (a 7% drop since January).
2020 models: $94,863 (a 9.6% drop since January).
2019 models: $82,459 (a 1% drop since January).
2018 models: $63,747 (a 1% drop since January).

Compared to a year earlier (February 2022), late-model semis lost a quarter of their market value.

Watch Price Trends Closely

Mitch Helman of Sandhills Global observes, "As truck and semitrailer values shift downward, sellers should closely monitor value trends to keep prices competitive and stay ahead of market changes."

Further evidence that used Class 8 truck prices are soft can be found in the Sandhills Equipment Value Index, which reports heavy-duty truck inventory increased by just over 30% early in 2023. That is the key bit of evidence that semi truck values will continue to soften into the summer and fall. More new trucks are being made, which leads to increased trade-ins. Greatly influencing this trend is the general economy. Continued inflation or a slight recession will slow the demand for trucking, thereby reducing demand for late-model Class 8 vehicles.

The million-dollar question is whether you buy this month or wait until late summer and see what develops. That decision depends on your needs, the age of your current fleet of trucks, and how much crop you need to haul to town this summer. But the chances are good that semi prices will continue to slip into harvest.

Do You Due Diligence Before Buying Used Semis

Looking beyond the odometer and features when pricing used trucks, particularly those that are longer in the tooth in age and mileage, is always worth the effort.

"A common mistake farmers and the public in general make is not knowing everything there is to know about a particular item," says Bill Nelson of US Auctioneers. "It starts with doing business with a reputable auction company or dealership that will tell you the bad along with the good about a truck."

Nelson, Luke Sullivan of Sullivan Auctioneers, and Tim Meyer of Steffes Group offer the following guidelines to researching a truck's background and condition.

Confirm the truck's mileage. Calculate what major repairs you will have to make if the truck has racked up a lot of miles. For example, if the truck has clicked over the 700,000-mile figure, an engine overhaul is due in the near future. Add the cost of such a major repair into the purchase price.
Get into a truck's background. This includes identifying its current owner and asking the auctioneer or dealer for contact information. Ask how the truck was used (local transport vs. over-the-road hauling) and serviced (check the service records or call the servicing dealer for that information). Also ask the owner why the truck is being sold. Finally, search to see if the truck was involved in an accident. If so, where was the repair work completed?
Hit the internet. Research reviews of the truck in general and the specific model's engine and transmission history. A lot is revealed about potential problems in discussion groups and driver reviews. But take single, unauthoritative reviews with a grain of salt and avoid ranting reviews.

Inspect the truck. Do it in person or hire a mechanic for the job. "The auctioneer holding the sale is also a good source of information," Nelson says. "A reputable seller will always work to get you the information you need." During the inspection, take a close look at the truck's frame, looking both for damage (cracks, bends, sagging, or welds) and rust. Also check the fifth wheel (which can reveal if the truck was abused), the suspension, and the condition of the cab (a solid indicator of whether the previous owner took pride in the truck). Start the engine and warm it up, being sure to listen outside the truck with the hood raised for engine noises. Then get in and take it for a ride.

Note how the truck accelerates and decelerates, how it handles, and how the suspension feels. Listen carefully for engine or brake sounds that might indicate an unseen problem.

A great mechanical inspection video can be found here.