Thanksgiving meal costs expected to drop from record highs of 2022

With Thanksgiving 2023 looming, families can expect to pay less for Thanksgiving meals than they did in 2022, according to American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economists.

The 38th annual Thanksgiving survey, released Wednesday, says the average 10-person Thanksgiving meal will cost $61.17, or just under $6.20 per person. That is a 4.5% decrease from 2022's record high of $64.05, thanks in part to a decrease in the price of turkey.

A 16-pound turkey will cost an average of $27.35, or $1.71 a pound, down 5.6% from 2022. Part of the decrease is due to less confirmed cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in 2023 than 2022, although cases have risen rapidly in the first two weeks of November as migration season takes place. 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports that 71 cases have been confirmed in the last 30 days.

Despite the drop in costs from last season, AFBF President Zippy Duvall said there is still work to be done to make dinners more affordable.

“While shoppers will see a slight improvement in the cost of a Thanksgiving dinner, high inflation continues to hammer families across the country, including the nation’s farmers,” said AFBF President Zippy Duvall. “Growing the food families rely on is a constant challenge for farmers because of high fuel, seed, fertilizer and transportation costs, just to name a few."

Midwestern families will have a cheaper meal on average at $58.66 for 10 people. The Northeast will have the most expensive meal on average at $64.38.

Dr. Christopher Pudenz, the Iowa Farm Bureau's economist, said he is very thankful for the work farmers do to make the fresh food on Thanksgiving possible, despite only receiving 15¢ out of each dollar spent on food, according to USDA.

“Agriculture has always played a critical role in Thanksgiving traditions,” says Pudenz. “Despite livestock diseases, drought impacts, and high input costs, farmers continue to provide the essential foods for these family gatherings, all while maintaining high standards of animal welfare and conservation. And that is certainly something to be thankful for.”