Brazil’s corn production estimate drops again

Estimates for Brazil’s corn output continue to shrink. The total corn output is down 1.41 million metric tons (mmt) to 147.3 mmt, according to Brazil’s National Supply Company (Conab). This is 12.2% lower than last year’s output. The second corn crop was down 3.4% from the previous forecast to 88 mmt.

The drop in production is attributed to a year with “intensified El Niño with an influence over the crops since the early plantings,” according to Conab.

Harvest of safrinha — the second corn crop — is underway. In Mato Grosso, the largest corn producing state, harvest is 76% complete with 45% of the new crop sold, according to consultancy AgRural. Favorable weather has helped spur harvest along. This has not been the case in Mato Grosso do Sul where harvest is only 29% complete.

40 days without rain

In Paraná, the only southern state that plants safrinha, many regions have gone 40 days without rain, according to a local government agency. Harvest is underway with 66% complete and 21% of the crop is considered under poor conditions. 

Rain is in the forecast for this week in Paraná, according to Climatempo. West-central states, such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Goiás, may face storms, which could mean multiple harvest delays this week.

The main talking point in the market among producers is the currency devaluation and its impact on the price received by producers. On July 12, 1 U.S. dollar would buy 5.42 Brazilian real. In January, $1 could purchase 4.95 Brazilian real.

While the amount received in local currency has increased due to currency devaluation, fertilizer costs are down, reducing the amount spent on inputs.

Argentina finishes soybean harvest

Argentina has finished soybean harvest with final production at 50 mmt. 

Estimates for corn harvest remain at 46.5 mmt, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. Harvest continues to progress well with 70% complete. 

Wheat planting in Argentina is almost complete with 93% done and 97% of that in good or excellent condition, according to the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange.