USDA increases corn acre estimate more than expected

USDA released the latest Acreage report on June 28.

CornRow-MediumShot
Photo: Bill Spiegel

Today USDA released the 2024 Acreage report. The report says American farmers are planting more corn and fewer soybean and wheat acres this year than the agency previously projected.

The report methodology says the planted acres estimates are based primarily on surveys conducted earlier this month. Altogether USDA is estimating a total of 224.8 million corn, soybean, and wheat acres for 2024. This is down from 2023 but higher than what the agency forecast earlier this year in the March Prospective Plantings report.

Corn

The report pegged 2024 corn acres at 91.5 million. This is down 3% from 2023 but an increase from USDA’s March estimate. Included in this estimate is 3.36 million acres that are yet to be planted.

Successful Farming (SF) partnered with Kluis Commodity Advisors on a acreage survey and results were released earlier this week. Today’s prediction is higher than both what the trade expected and what the Kluis/SF survey found.

Corn acres (millions)
June 2024  March 2024 2023 Trade Expectation Kluis/SF Survey
91.5  90  94.6  90.3 88.5 

Soybeans

USDA's report pegged 2024 soybean acres at 86.1 million. This is up 3% from 2023 but below USDA’s March estimate. Included in this estimate is 12.77 million acres that are yet to be planted.

USDA came in below what the trade expected and what the Kluis/SF survey found.

Soybean acres (millions)
June 2024  March 2024 2023 Trade Expectation Kluis/SF Survey
86.1  86.5  83.6  86.7 88

Wheat

The report pegged 2024 wheat acres at 47.2 million. This is down 5% from 2023 and below USDA’s March estimate.

Today’s report puts wheat acres below what the trade expected and what the Kluis/SF survey found.

Wheat acres (millions)
June 2024  March 2024 2023 Trade Expectation Kluis/SF Survey
47.2  47.5  49.6  47.6 47.8 

Quarterly Grain Stocks

USDA also released the quarterly Grain Stocks report today.

The USDA report pegged U.S. corn stocks as of June 1, 2024, at 4.993 billion bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 4.873 billion bushels and up 22% from a year ago.

For soybeans, USDA pegged the quarterly grain stocks at 970 million bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 962 million bushels and up 22% from a year ago.

USDA says U.S. wheat quarterly grain stocks are at 702 million bushels, above the trade’s expectation of 684 million bushels and up 23% from a year ago.

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor for Total Farm Marketing: “Today’s reports were bearish for corn, with acres coming in higher than expected and quarterly stocks coming in higher than expected. Technical selling has kicked into gear with sell stops being triggered under the market. Soybeans continue to hold on to $11 support for the new crop as today’s report was supportive in terms of acreage. The question will be how trade finishes today. Talk will turn again toward prevent plant acres and weather concerns.”

Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors: “The June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports have a history of creating a lot of volatility and they are doing that again today. The corn acreage estimate was larger than I and the trade expected and the soybean acreage estimate was smaller than expected. So the report ended up being negative for corn, with corn down 20¢ so far, and positive for beans, which are up 10¢. After today, I will be waiting to see if basis offers improve and to see if we get any weather scares in July. 

“The corn and beans stocks came in larger than expected, showing reduced domestic demand. At the same time we are seeing very aggressive bids from processors, so if inventories are larger than expected, that is a surprise.”

Karl Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting: “The numbers in the Acreage report raise a few questions. We still have 3.36 million corn and 12.8 million soybean acres left to plant. So it is pretty tough to sit here and say this is your acreage. If you get floods and heavy rains and even 1 million of the 3.36 doesn’t get planted, then all of a sudden you're back to 90.5 million acres. 

“There are also questions on the number of responses to surveys used to collect data, and if enough are returned to give us an accurate total. The number of survey responses has declined in recent years, and continues to trend lower.

“There was nothing in this report that was what you would call ‘positive,’ but boy, it really opens up more questions than anything else.”

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