Central Tennessee drying up as crop conditions worsen

At the end of May, Tennessee crops and soil were faring well, after a wet spring season. However, June and July have been different. Rapid-onset drought has hit much of central and eastern Tennessee, as high temperatures collided with a stop to regular rainfall. 

According to data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, June 1–July 23, areas of central Tennessee experienced upwards of 5 inches less precipitation than the yearly average. 

In the latest Drought Monitor report released July 25, 48.3% of the state is in D1 moderate drought or worse — a jump of 47 percentage points from April. Corn crop condition has also worsened; the most recent USDA Crop Progress report indicates that as of July 21, 51% of the state’s corn are in Good/Excellent condition — down from 56% the week prior.

Soybeans are in 58% Good/Excellent condition — down from 62% the week prior.

Tennessee Assistant State Climatologist William Tollefson said the sudden uptick in drought has been difficult on corn and pastures. 

“The grasses were all brown, trees were showing signs of stress,” Tollefson says. “We got reports of cattle issues, like pastures, having to feed hay and bring in water. Some farmers were selling calves to reduce stress on their pastures.” 

Corn was the other concern. “In certain counties, the drought hit right as tasseling was starting,” Tollefson says. “They were starting to silk. We had a report from one extension agent that the silks were turning black immediately because it was so hot and dry.”

Hay has been impacted heavily. State Climatologist Andrew Joyner says there have been reports of calves being sold off in numbers above the yearly average due to a lack of viable hay. In Smith County, east of Nashville, he says, a reported 1,214 head were sold as of July 13 — a near-doubling of the 802 head sold in July 2023. 

Pasture conditions in the latest Crop Progress report were only 24% Good/Excellent, with 42% of pastures rated as Poor/Very Poor. 

Difficulties in the livestock and crops have left much of Tennessee wishing for consistent rains. 

What next?

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s short-term forecast for the end of July and beginning of August expects above-average precipitation for Tennessee. The August monthly prediction indicates the same. Temperatures are forecast to continue to be high.

“It seems like our pattern is shifting,” Joyner says.

Tollefson and Joyner say Tennessee would need immense precipitation to emerge from drought conditions. Steady rainfall for for multiple days per week over a long period would be preferable to intense rainfall. That would help pastures and fields recover to pre-drought conditions.

In the long term, Joyner says farmers are hoping for tropical moisture to come through in August, September, and October — which didn’t happen in 2023. 

“Usually, they’re pretty helpful for us,” Joyner says. “Last year we didn’t have any. We are really hoping for some tropical moisture later into the fall to help during the end of the growing season and toward harvest season.”