Wisconsin soaked, but cautiously optimistic about summer ahead

After a drought-filled 2023, the 2024 growing season in Wisconsin could not be more different.

One year ago, the state was in 100% abnormally dry condition. Crop condition suffered tremendously at the time, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) said only 44% of the corn and 40% of soybeans were in good/excellent condition as of July 3, 2023. 

This July, Wisconsin is one of two Corn Belt states with zero drought as of July 2 alongside Minnesota, according to the latest Drought Monitor report. Crop conditions are better, USDA says in the most recent Crop Progress report: As of July 7, 62% of corn and 60% of soybeans are in good/excellent condition throughout the state. One of the main reasons? Historically high precipitation in the months of May and June. 

According to Wisconsin State Climatologist Steve Vavrus, the state experienced the 10th-wettest month of May in recorded history, followed by the sixth-wettest month of June — making it the wettest May–June stretch in Wisconsin history. The amount and frequency of precipitation statewide has led to less workable field days. Only 3 days were suitable for field work in the latest Crop Progress report, a slight drop from 3.3 suitable days in the week ending June 30 and a big drop from July 7, 2023, when six out of seven days were suitable for fieldwork. 

Vavrus said he has seen plenty of standing water in fields. 

“It was needed at first and started becoming too much of a good thing,” Vavrus said. “I know from driving around there’s a lot of standing water in fields. I’m in Cambridge, which is a low-laying area, but there is an awful lot of ponding in farm fields. It’s come and gone in some cases, but other places it’s been there for weeks, if not for a month or two.”

Data from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet shows that from May 1 to June 30, 2024, every county in Wisconsin received 2.4 more inches of precipitation than the yearly average for the time period. Counties on the western tip of the state, such as St. Croix and Pierce, got 10.6 more inches of rain than average, as did south-central counties Sauk and Dane. 

As a result of the rainfall, topsoil in the state was rated 49% adequate and 51% surplus. Subsoil was categorized as 54% adequate and 46% surplus.

Vavrus said temperatures in the state have been lower than usual for the warmest time of the year, too. 

“We’ve had some small bursts of heat but a lot of places in Wisconsin have not hit 90° yet this year,” Vavrus said. 

What lies ahead?

The National Weather Service’s (NWS) Climate Prediction Service has Wisconsin slated for above-average temperatures from July 16–23, but the full July forecast shows the state in the grey area with equal chances of higher or lower temperatures than average. Even more precipitation is expected as well.

 Vavrus said the weather has put the state in an interesting position entering what is usually the driest, warmest period of the growing season. 

“Things can change in a hurry,” Vavrus said. “I’m always cautious this time of year … I don’t think we’re out of the woods just because we have had these big precipitation flip-flops lately. I think we need to be on guard.”

The extended forecast for the state is ambiguous when it comes to precipitation. Above-average temperatures are predicted, but rainfall could go either way. A lack of clear confidence in what happens next means that despite plenty of rain and a surplus of moisture in the soil, there is not clarity in the direction Wisconsin crops will take from now until harvest season.