Wet spring slows planting in Illinois, but not yet time for concern

Corn planting is underway in many of the top 18 corn-growing states in the United States, but Illinois is lagging behind last year’s progress – due in part to wet spring weather.

As of April 21, 11% of Illinois corn acres are planted. While that number is ahead of the five-year average of 10% from 2019-2023, it is well behind the state’s 2023 numbers for the same week (16% complete). Just 1% of corn in the state has emerged, but that is ahead of the five-year average and for 2023. 

Illinois state climatologist Trent Ford said he didn’t see much planting going on during a recent drive through the southern half of the state but added that most planting completed in the state at this point in the year would be in southern Illinois. He said the southern third has been the driest part of the state and called the soil “more workable” at this stage than in the central and northern parts of the state.

“The weather since the latter half of March hasn’t been super conducive to field work,” Ford said. “Most places have been near to maybe an inch or two above normal. Planting progress is a little bit behind normal, but it’s not exceptionally so.”

The wet spring has led some areas in north-central Illinois to receive seven inches of rain more than usual for this time of year, Ford said. Northern Illinois doesn’t usually plant its corn crop this early in the year, so it’s not a big concern yet for farmers, but he added that the weekend’s forecast throughout the Midwest of heavy rain and storms could be a “short-term pain” for farmers hoping to get into the field. The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center says the bulk of the Midwest is likely to get above-average precipitation in the next 6 to 10 days.

Wisconsin just beginning planting

In Wisconsin, planting has barely begun, with 2% of the corn crop in the ground. The number is right in line with the state’s five-year average. 

Steve Vavrus, the Wisconsin state climatologist, said the state has been consistently warmer than monthly averages but has benefitted from a wet spring season. Precipitation has largely cut down the scale of drought prevalent in the state last year, with only 5% of the state suffering from severe drought, according to the latest Drought Monitor. 

Those areas of severe drought are concentrated in Sauk County in southwest Wisconsin and Iron County in the northern part of the state. 

“We’re definitely in a lot better shape than we were in the middle of last summer, drought-wise,” Vavrus said.

31- to 60-day forecast

While there is an expectation of a wet short-term weather forecast for the last weekend of April, Ford said the long-term outlook for the Midwest and the Corn Belt over May, June, and July is one of warmth and possible drought. 

The lessening of El Niño usually coincides with a warmer summer season, Ford said, and this isn’t the case for Illinois alone. Taking a broad look at the Corn Belt’s predicted weather forecast over the growing season, Ford said there is a strong likelihood that drought will expand out from Texas and into many of the country’s top corn growing states.

“The signals are matching up,” Ford said. “We’re not looking at seeing a cool May, a cool start to the growing season. It just does not look like that’s in the cards. That may be one benefit, even if planting is delayed, to get emergence going.”

Ford added that he’s very interested in how weather forecasting models continue to look in the summer months and whether the projected levels of drought in the western Corn Belt will decrease.