Heat and dry weather expected in July for western Corn Belt

Corn condition in the nation’s top 18 corn growing states continues to slowly slip as each U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Crop Progress report passes. In the most recent report, for the week ending June 30, only 67% of the corn crop was in good/excellent condition — the fourth straight week with a decline. 

A big part of the reason for the drop is the heat, with heat waves consistent across the Corn Belt — especially in the eastern Corn Belt. Pennsylvania went from being completely drought-free in April to 58% of the state experiencing abnormally dry conditions in the latest Drought Monitor report on July 2. 

Short-term forecast

The next two weeks are expected to bring average to above-average precipitation to much of the Corn Belt, according to the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC). The only areas predicted to experience dry conditions through July 17 are the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Minnesota is currently one of two Corn Belt states without any drought as of July 2. 

Temperatures, though, are still predicted to rise above weekly averages. Only Texas is poised to avoid a heat wave, which might help the western part of the state. Three percent of Texas is in level D3 extreme drought, all in the western portion of the state, as of July 2.

July forecast and beyond sees high heat in Colorado

Later in July, though, the next heat wave to hit the United States is expected to cause more difficulties in the western half of the Corn Belt. The latest projection from the CPC has Colorado squarely in the eye of temperatures well above the seasonal average, while the eastern half of the state is predicted to experience less precipitation than average. 

Along with eastern Colorado, western Kansas, north Texas, and the panhandle of Nebraska are expected to have less precipitation than the average. 

The same areas are also projected to get low amounts of rainfall over July, August, and September, with western Colorado included. The state is in drought conditions similar to April, with 32% of the Rocky Mountain State abnormally dry. With 55% of corn in good/excellent condition and winter wheat struggling at just 40% good/excellent condition, farmers will be hoping for timely rainfall and cool nighttime temperatures to keep drought at bay and keep crop conditions solid.