Damage already done to Kansas winter wheat crop despite recent rainfall

For the sixth week in a row, winter wheat in Kansas is the worst in the nation. However, the state’s winter wheat crop saw a slight improvement in crop condition from the previous week. The week ending May 19, 31% of the crop was in poor/very poor shape, according to the USDA Crop Progress report.

Recent rainfall could be the cause for slight improvements in the winter wheat crop condition. Christopher Redmond, assistant meteorologist at Kansas State University, says that, despite the precipitation, the damage has already been done for most of the state’s crop.

Kansas winter wheat progress and condition

USDA rated Kansas winter wheat 11% very poor, 20% poor, 36% fair, 30% good, and 3% excellent the week ending May 19. This is a slight improvement from the previous week when 35% of the state’s crop was rated poor/very poor.

The winter wheat crop in Kansas continues to progress, with 90% of the crop headed. This is up from 73% a week ago. The current rate continues to be well ahead of the previous year and the five-year average of 68%. Winter wheat coloring also progressed with 24% reported, according to the USDA Crop Progress report for Kansas. 

Kansas wheat specialist shares thoughts on 2024 crop

Rômulo Lollato, an associate professor at Kansas State University, says that Kansas winter wheat yields have the potential to be anywhere from 15 bushels per acre (bpa) to 80 bpa depending on where in the state the wheat is harvested. 

Taking a look back at the conditions that have faced the state’s winter wheat crop can help explain the significant variability in potential yields this season, Lollato says. In fact, he says that crop conditions started off “the best that we’ve seen in the past three years or so statewide.” 

Lollato says there was only a small portion of the state that didn’t get a strong start in the fall. He says that the winter wheat crop in parts of northwestern Kansas “never got rainfall until December.” 

For the rest of the state, though, Lollato says that Kansas went into the winter months “in very decent shape statewide.” Unfortunately, Lollato says that, after some snowfall at the beginning of winter, “things went south because we dried up and had a dry end of the winter to the beginning of spring.”

From that point on, Lollato says the winter wheat crop “started going backwards.” As the crop began to need more moisture, Lollato says the state was dry. Drought conditions persisted until sometime in early May to recently in most of the state, Lollato notes.

Despite the improving drought conditions because of rainfall, Lollato says some farmers “are already abandoning their crop,” as a result of spotty rainfall throughout the entire growing season. Overall, Lollato says that “anyone who got rainfall has been very lucky.” 

For those that aren’t abandoning their winter wheat crop despite the reduced yield potential, Lollato says they’ll likely graze it out to their cattle. 

Spotty rainfall hasn’t been the only issue for this year’s winter wheat in Kansas, Lollato says. He says that temperatures fell to 10℉ between March 26 and 27 when the crop was going through stem elongation. As a result, there was very consistent “freeze damage around the state that contributed to yield loss.”

Although winter wheat fields are so wavy and variable, Lollato says that the Kansas is coming out of “two to three terrible years, and I’d still probably rate [the winter wheat crop] above what we had last year. So I think we’re probably headed to an average to below average crop for the state.”

Recent Kansas weather

A weather summary compiled by the National Ag Statistics Service says there were 4.6 days suitable for fieldwork for the week ending May 19. 

Maps generated by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet indicate precipitation departures as high as 4.5 inches above average in some parts of the state, while other areas received nearly 4 inches below average precipitation over the past month. 

The most recent Crop Progress report rated Kansas topsoil moisture 17% very short, 22% short, 51% adequate, and 10% surplus. Subsoil moisture was rated 20% very short, 29% short, 47% adequate, and 4% surplus.

Latest Kansas drought conditions

A drought map published May 16 shows less than 1% of the state experiencing D3 extreme drought conditions. 

Thirty-two percent of Kansas is facing D2 severe drought conditions.

D1 moderate drought spans another 17% of the state. 

Nearly one-third of the state is abnormally dry.

The remaining 22% of Kansas is free of drought stress, showing little change from the start of the calendar year when 20% of the state was drought free.

Of the state’s 105 counties, 94 have USDA disaster designations.