Current Tennessee drought conditions expected to persist through winter months

For several months, parts of Tennessee have been impacted by flash drought conditions leaving pastures in terrible shape and concerns about low water levels for spring planting.

Current conditions in Tennessee

Andrew Joyner, Tennessee state climatologist, says Tennessee's intense drought conditions causing concern about cover crop and winter wheat crop conditions, as well as the low levels of streams and ponds. "Producers report natural water sources remain below normal levels," said a USDA report published Jan. 3, 2024.

Current Tennessee crop condition

As the calendar turned to the new year, USDA reported winter wheat condition in the state to be 4% very poor, 6% poor, 38% fair, 40% good, and 12% excellent.

The report noted winter wheat progress is a bit behind normal coming out of the fall drought.

Challenges for Tennessee livestock producers

Pasture and range condition was rated 14% very poor, 30% poor, 40% fair, 15% good, and 1% excellent at the end of December.

Cattle condition rated 1% very poor, 5% poor, 28% fair, 60% good, and 6% excellent.

Hay and roughage supplies are 7% very short, 32% short, 57% adequate, and 4% surplus.

Widespread drought and soil moisture shortage

The latest drought monitor map shows that 100% of the state is facing drought conditions. Three percent of Tennessee is in D4 exceptional drought, 45% is in D3 extreme drought, 25% is in D2 severe drought, 21% is in D1 moderate drought, and the remaining 7% is abnormally dry. At the start of 2023, just less than 1% of the state was abnormally dry.

USDA's Crop Progress State Stories reported top soil moisture conditions 7% very short, 37% short, 55% adequate, and 1% surplus the week ending Dec. 31. Subsoil moisture conditions were rated 8% very short, 39% short, 52% adequate, and 1% surplus.

Long term outlook

If drought conditions persist throughout the winter months and into the beginning of spring, Joyner says farmers will see the impacts of the drought as the 2024 planting season begins. Additionally, he says that pastures, which already ended 2023 in “pretty terrible shape across the state” will be a concern. At the end of November, Joyner says that pastures were rated with only around 10% in good/excellent condition. He says this was the lowest quality level of the past five years.

The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook released Dec. 21, 2023 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) anticipates that drought conditions will continue to persist through March 31, 2024. “Uncertainty in the temperature and precipitation outlooks across portions of the central [continental United States] from the Southern Plains northeastward to the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys favors widespread drought persistence,” the report says.

While drought conditions are impacting Tennessee currently, Joyner says that, historically, the data shows that the state has seen an increase in precipitation over the years. “These increases have, and will, vary in both timing and intensity,” Joyner says. “While overall precipitation may increase, it’s expected to fall in more, shorter duration, higher intensity events.”

As a result, Joyner says three inches of rain could fall one day followed by no rainfall for the remainder of a month, which he says wouldn’t be ideal for many agriculture operations. More details about the lengthening time between precipitation events can be found in the drought section of Tennessee’s 2023 State Hazard Mitigation Plan Update. 

In the flood section of the update, Joyner says that Tennessee’s spring months are expected to get wetter, however the summer season is expected to be drier for two-thirds of the state. As a result, with drier summers, Joyner says that when rainfall events do occur, the timing will be even more critical for farmers.

Another change expected in the future is a continuation of increased temperatures, specifically higher temperatures at night, Joyner says. “These warmer night time temperatures can damage crops,” Joyner says, “especially in the summer if temperatures don’t fall below 75°F.”

While future drought conditions are a point of concern, Joyner says that some parts of Tennessee did see some drought relief throughout December 2023 thanks to some rainfall. Both southeast Tennessee and Chattanooga saw drought relief at the end of the year, Joyner says. Polk County, however, “is still quite dry,” Joyner says, and has the potential for wildfire impacts.