Corn progress lags in some areas; more rain on the way

Corn planting has begun to fall behind in parts of the Corn Belt, according to the latest U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Progress report. At 49% complete through May 2, progress is now five percentage points below the five-year average of 54%. Persistent rain is the main culprit across the top 18 corn-growing states. 

Iowa only reported 1.7 suitable days for fieldwork in the past week, while Illinois only reported 2.3 workable field days. Illinois has now dropped 14 percentage points behind its five-year planting progress average (42% to 56%). Southern Illinois, the area of the state that usually gets planting done first, had counties with over 3 inches of precipitation more than the yearly average. Central Illinois actually received less precipitation than the average from May 5 through May 2, but planting progress still suffered. 

10-day forecast

AccuWeather meteorologist Dale Mohler said the rain for much of the Corn Belt has been consistent enough to keep farmers out of fields, but in the northern tip of the Corn Belt, precipitation hasn’t been as forthcoming. 

“They’re able to keep planting,” Mohler said. “But you get any further south, southern Iowa, Missouri, especially on over toward Ohio and Michigan, it’s a bit wetter and I don’t know when they’ll be able to get out in the fields.”

Short-term forecasts for much of the northern Corn Belt by the National Weather Service Prediction Center call for an above-average chance of precipitation from North Dakota down to the southern part of Missouri. Southern Texas has a below-average chance of precipitation. 

Mohler added that it doesn’t have to be panic time for farmers who are saddled by delays, but said they should prepare to be in the field at a moment’s notice due to the unfavorable forecast. Particularly, he said the forecast looks like “more of the same” across the Midwest, with rain expected every two to three days. This pattern is good for those who already have corn and soybeans in the ground, but for those stuck waiting, he called it a “challenge.”

30- to 60-day extended forecast

The frequency of rain and thunderstorms rolling across the Corn Belt is expected to slow down toward the end of May, Mohler said. He added that this is a much different situation than 2023, when planting was speeding along due to dry weather and the Corn Belt was nearing a drought-induced “crisis point” before rains came.

While there’s hurt for farmers now, Mohler and AccuWeather are projecting precipitation to continue remaining at normal or above-normal levels in the months of June and July. 

Warmer temperatures in June and July have been predicted as well, with AccuWeather projecting the central Corn Belt area to be 3° to 4° above average and North Dakota and northern Minnesota to reach peak temperatures more than 4° above the historical average.

The Midwest is a difficult area to truly predict months ahead, Mohler said, but he said indications are the majority of the Corn Belt is shaping up to be in good shape weather-wise for the growing season.